A 2,000 square foot house in the San Gabriel Valley is not one job. It is at least three: a change-out on existing ducts, a change-out that needs duct repair, or a first-time central system in a house that never had ducts.
That is why the honest range is roughly $6,000–$15,000 for many replacements, and more if we are building a duct system from scratch, upgrading electrical, or moving the equipment.
Sizing is not '2,000 ÷ 500 = 4 tons'
Rules of thumb put a 2,000 sq ft house between 3 and 4 tons. Reality depends on two-story vs ranch, west glass, insulation, attic temperature, and whether the house leaks like a screen door. I have put a well-designed 3-ton in a tight 2,000 sq ft house and needed 4 tons in a glass-heavy two-story of the same footage.
Room-by-room, Manual J assigns CFM to each space. The west bedroom with two windows is not the same as the interior bath. If the quote is one number and no room list, it is not a design.
Cost bands you will actually see
| Situation | Typical range | What you are paying for |
|---|---|---|
| Like-for-like replacement, ducts OK | $6,000–$10,000 | Matched condenser + coil, permit, labor |
| Replacement + duct repairs / new thermostat / disconnect | $8,000–$13,000 | Airflow fixes that make the new unit work |
| Higher-efficiency or two-stage / variable | $11,000–$16,000+ | Equipment premium + commissioning |
| No ducts or ducts must be replaced | $14,000–$25,000+ | Distribution is the job; the box is secondary |
Room-by-room issues that move the price
- Bonus room over the garage: often a duct and insulation problem, not a 'needs another ton' problem.
- Converted patio or ADU-style space: may need its own run or a mini-split instead of stretching the main system.
- Upstairs vs downstairs: two-story homes often need return strategy, not just more supply.
- Kitchen and great room with high ceilings: grille selection (Manual T) matters or the cold air never comes down.
How to lower the price without buying junk
- Keep the indoor unit if it is matched, healthy, and legal to pair. Do not automatically replace everything.
- Fix ducts instead of buying a larger condenser to overcome leaks.
- Choose a solid mid-tier efficiency if you do not have the cooling hours to pay back the top SEER2.
- Be home for the estimate so we do not have to guess about attic access and electrical.
- Ask about financing if cash is the constraint — do not let cash force a bad size.
The number I will not put in a blog post
Your house has a price. 2,000 sq ft is a starting point. I will not lock a change-out number until I see the attic, the panel, the disconnect, and the returns.
Call for a free in-home estimate. You will get tonnage from a load calculation, a written scope, and a range that matches the house — not a national average for a 2,000 sq ft box.